AS Eupen 1-3 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Anderlecht (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AS Eupen face Anderlecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Eupen host Anderlecht at Kehrwegstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, AS Eupen stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, AS Eupen have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Anderlecht have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Anderlecht away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Anderlecht are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Anderlecht have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for AS Eupen.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2023, ended AS Eupen 0–1 Anderlecht — a Anderlecht win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Anderlecht have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
AS Eupen trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Anderlecht trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 58% versus Anderlecht 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 61% | Anderlecht 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.38 xG and Anderlecht 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 1.007 / defence 1.487 | Anderlecht attack 0.948 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.302. AS Eupen's defence rating of 1.487 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Anderlecht's projected output up. Data: built from AS Eupen's last 42 games and Anderlecht's last 41.
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 28% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 47%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 3.58 | Draw 4.02 | Anderlecht 2.12. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.83) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AS Eupen's last 10 home games and Anderlecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Eupen 80% (last 10 home games) | Anderlecht 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 9 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 28% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG AS Eupen 1.38 / Anderlecht 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 1.007 / def 1.487 | Anderlecht attack 0.948 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Anderlecht xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Eupen vs Anderlecht FAQs
What time does AS Eupen vs Anderlecht kick off?
AS Eupen vs Anderlecht kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Anderlecht?
AS Eupen 1 - 3 Anderlecht.
Where is AS Eupen vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Anderlecht part of?
AS Eupen vs Anderlecht is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 9) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 28% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both AS Eupen and Anderlecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Eupen vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Eupen's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Eupen's last 42 games and Anderlecht's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
28%
3.58
25%
4.02
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
3.21
1.83
Anderlecht xG
3.58
28%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
4%
22.45
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Eupen vs Anderlecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.83 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Eupen's recent record stands at 10W 8D 23L from 41 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 14L across 41 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Eupen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AS Eupen have managed 4W 5D 11L from their last 20 home games — 0.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 8W 5D 7L across their last 20 away games, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.44 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
AS Eupen (Home) vs Anderlecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Eupen
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ AS Eupen vs Anderlecht Form FAQs
What form are AS Eupen and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 10W 8D 23L in their last 41 games (0.93 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 17W 10D 14L in their last 41 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.85 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.45 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from July 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Anderlecht have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Feb 2022, when Anderlecht won Anderlecht 4-1 AS Eupen.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
AS Eupen
1
Draws
5
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Eupen vs Anderlecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Anderlecht?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Eupen have won 0, Anderlecht have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Anderlecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 March 2024: Anderlecht 1-0 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Anderlecht see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 65%, Anderlecht 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (AS Eupen) and 40% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 40%; AS Eupen have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Eupen vs Anderlecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Eupen and Anderlecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of AS Eupen's games and 45% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AS Eupen and Anderlecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of AS Eupen's recent games and 40% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and Anderlecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 55% of Anderlecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat AS Eupen 1-3 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.38 xG and Anderlecht 1.83 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Anderlecht outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 1.01 / defence 1.49 against Anderlecht attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 28% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 47%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 61%, Anderlecht 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Anderlecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Eupen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.