Charleroi 2-1 RWDM – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Charleroi at 49%, yet in-form RWDM provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charleroi vs RWDM fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RWDM make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Friday 6 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Charleroi (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Charleroi's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
RWDM's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RWDM's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, RWDM are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
RWDM — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 58% and RWDM 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 54% | RWDM 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charleroi surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while RWDM have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.52 xG and RWDM 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.832 / defence 0.816 | RWDM attack 0.846 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.316. RWDM's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charleroi's projected output up. Data: built from Charleroi's last 42 games and RWDM's last 9.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 49% | Draw 31% | RWDM 20%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | RWDM 4.99. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RWDM (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charleroi 50% (last 10 home games) | RWDM 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs RWDM | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 6 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 49% | Draw 31% | RWDM 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Charleroi 1.52 / RWDM 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.832 / def 0.816 | RWDM attack 0.846 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.91
RWDM xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs RWDM FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs RWDM kick off?
Charleroi vs RWDM kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 6 October 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs RWDM?
Charleroi 2 - 1 RWDM.
Where is Charleroi vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs RWDM part of?
Charleroi vs RWDM is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 49% chance of winning, RWDM a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Charleroi and RWDM will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Charleroi vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against RWDM's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — RWDM's attack (0.85x) against Charleroi's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 42 games and RWDM's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
49%
2.04
31%
3.23
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.43
0.91
RWDM xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
22.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs RWDM Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Charleroi and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.91 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs RWDM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 14W 10D 17L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
RWDM's form line: 24W 9D 8L from 41 games, 1.98 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, RWDM are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 19 home games (7W 5D 7L).
On the road, RWDM have gone 10W 4D 5L from their last 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.83 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM in 63%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
RWDM
Blended
Charleroi (Home) vs RWDM (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ Charleroi vs RWDM Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and RWDM in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 14W 10D 17L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while RWDM have gone 24W 9D 8L in their last 41 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or RWDM away?
RWDM's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.37 PPG; RWDM away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Charleroi and RWDM, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against RWDM — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Charleroi
2
Draws
0
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs RWDM H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and RWDM?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 2, RWDM have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and RWDM last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2024: RWDM 1-3 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and RWDM?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 58%, RWDM 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Charleroi) and 63% (RWDM). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs RWDM Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and RWDM matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Charleroi's games and 68% of RWDM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charleroi and RWDM matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Charleroi's matches and 63% of RWDM's.
Do Charleroi and RWDM matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Charleroi's recent matches and 68% of RWDM's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out RWDM 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat RWDM 2-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.52 xG and RWDM 0.91 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.83 / defence 0.82 against RWDM attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 42/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 49% | Draw 31% | RWDM 20%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 54%, RWDM 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
RWDM's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.