WSG Wattens 2-4 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as WSG Wattens face FC BW Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to face WSG Wattens in Bundesliga (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
WSG Wattens (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, WSG Wattens have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC BW Linz's record over their last 5 games: 0W 1D 4L (0.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC BW Linz's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 3L across their last 3 road games (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for WSG Wattens against 0.20 for FC BW Linz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and FC BW Linz's last 3 away games) — WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC BW Linz in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 60% and FC BW Linz 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 40% | FC BW Linz 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.77 xG and FC BW Linz 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.979 / defence 1.138 | FC BW Linz attack 0.758 / defence 1.509. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.438. FC BW Linz's defence rating of 1.509 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing WSG Wattens's projected output up. FC BW Linz's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Data: built from WSG Wattens's last 27 games and FC BW Linz's last 5.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 47% | Draw 30% | FC BW Linz 24%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.14 | Draw 3.37 | FC BW Linz 4.24. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and FC BW Linz's last 3 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: WSG Wattens 70% (last 10 home games) | FC BW Linz 67% (last 3 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 6 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 47% | Draw 30% | FC BW Linz 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG WSG Wattens 1.77 / FC BW Linz 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.979 / def 1.138 | FC BW Linz attack 0.758 / def 1.509 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.24
FC BW Linz xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz FAQs
What time does WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz kick off?
WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
WSG Wattens 2 - 4 FC BW Linz.
Where is WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz part of?
WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 6) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 47% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.98x the league average against FC BW Linz's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.76x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from WSG Wattens's last 27 games and FC BW Linz's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.37
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.02
1.24
FC BW Linz xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
4%
25.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.24 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 0.40 PPG on a 0W 2D 3L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
FC BW Linz's form line: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games, 0.20 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.40 PPG for WSG Wattens against 0.20 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
WSG Wattens are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.00 scored and 3.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC BW Linz in 60%.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Early Season
FC BW Linz
Early Season
WSG Wattens (Home) vs FC BW Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
WSG Wattens
Early Season
FC BW Linz
Early Season
❓ WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz Form FAQs
What form are WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won FC BW Linz 5-0 WSG Wattens on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
4
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, WSG Wattens have won 4, FC BW Linz have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: WSG Wattens 1-1 FC BW Linz.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 60%, FC BW Linz 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for WSG Wattens and 80% for FC BW Linz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 40% of games; FC BW Linz in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of WSG Wattens's games and 60% of FC BW Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of WSG Wattens's matches and 80% of FC BW Linz's.
Do WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 100% of FC BW Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC BW Linz cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat WSG Wattens 2-4 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.77 xG and FC BW Linz 1.24 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. FC BW Linz outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against FC BW Linz attack 0.76 / defence 1.51, drawn from 27/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 47% | Draw 30% | FC BW Linz 24%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a FC BW Linz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 40%, FC BW Linz 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 0.40 PPG, FC BW Linz 0.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC BW Linz scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.