Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Lustenau make the trip to Lavanttal Arena to face Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Austria Lustenau have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wolfsberger AC lead 3W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 3–2 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 59% versus Austria Lustenau 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 61% | Austria Lustenau 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.86 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.092 / defence 1.070 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.866 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Austria Lustenau bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Wolfsberger AC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Wolfsberger AC games / 44 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 58% | Draw 25% | Austria Lustenau 18%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Austria Lustenau 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Wolfsberger AC (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Wolfsberger AC 40% | Austria Lustenau 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 58% | Draw 25% | Austria Lustenau 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.86 / Austria Lustenau 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.092 / def 1.070 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.866 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Austria Lustenau xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 1 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 58% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau?
Record (7 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 3W | Draws 2 | Austria Lustenau 2W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Austria Lustenau's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.87x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.07
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.80
0.94
Austria Lustenau xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
3%
36.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 0.94 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 20W 15D 24L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 13W 17D 29L from 59 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 0.95 for Austria Lustenau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.03 PPG from 30 outings (8W 7D 15L).
On the road, Austria Lustenau have gone 6W 12D 12L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.12 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 20W 15D 24L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 13W 17D 29L in their last 59 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.03 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
3
Draws
2
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau?
From 9 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Austria Lustenau have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Austria Lustenau 1-2 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Austria Lustenau see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 67%, Austria Lustenau 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Wolfsberger AC) and 40% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 47% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 40% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lavanttal Arena, Relegation Round - 5, as Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.86 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.94 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.87 / defence 1.27, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 58% | Draw 25% | Austria Lustenau 18%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 61%, Austria Lustenau 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.27 PPG, Austria Lustenau 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.