Austria Vienna 3-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

WSG Wattens travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 5). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

WSG Wattens — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Austria Vienna, 0 for WSG Wattens and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Mar 2024, ended Austria Vienna 2–0 WSG Wattens — a Austria Vienna win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 55% versus WSG Wattens 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 60% | WSG Wattens 52%). Note also that WSG Wattens surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Austria Vienna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.79 xG and WSG Wattens 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.092 / defence 0.824 | WSG Wattens attack 0.869 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. WSG Wattens's defence rating of 1.221 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Austria Vienna's projected output up. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and WSG Wattens's last 44.

Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 62% | Draw 25% | WSG Wattens 14%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.62 | Draw 4.04 | WSG Wattens 7.36. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (62%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and WSG Wattens's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 30% (last 10 home games) | WSG Wattens 40% (last 10 away games).

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