Austria Lustenau 1-2 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Lustenau at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz plays host to Austria Lustenau versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Austria Lustenau (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 games at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz this season.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Austria Lustenau against 1.10 for Wolfsberger AC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Austria Lustenau 2W, Wolfsberger AC 3W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Austria Lustenau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 48% versus Wolfsberger AC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 50% | Wolfsberger AC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.31 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.863 / defence 1.319 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.932 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Austria Lustenau games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 37% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 34%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Wolfsberger AC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Lustenau at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Austria Lustenau 40% | Wolfsberger AC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 37% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.31 / Wolfsberger AC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.863 / def 1.319 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.932 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Wolfsberger AC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Lustenau 1 - 2 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 37% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (8 meetings): Austria Lustenau 2W | Draws 3 | Wolfsberger AC 3W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 0.86x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.93x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.41
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.55
1.25
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.25 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Austria Lustenau have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 13W 18D 29L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 20W 16D 24L from 60 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Austria Lustenau against 1.27 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Lustenau have posted 0.90 PPG from 29 outings (7W 5D 17L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 8D 9L from 29 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.38 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 13W 18D 29L in their last 60 games (0.95 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 0.90 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Austria Lustenau
3
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC?
From 9 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 2, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Austria Lustenau 1-2 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 48%, Wolfsberger AC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Austria Lustenau and 59% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC in 31%; Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 38% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 52% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 59% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Austria Lustenau 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Lustenau 1-2 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz, Relegation Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.31 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.86 / defence 1.32 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.93 / defence 1.13, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 37% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 34%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 50%, Wolfsberger AC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 0.95 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.