Daegu FC 2-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 56% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daegu FC and Jeju United FC meet at DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1 (Relegation Round - 3). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 05:00 UK time.
Current Form
Daegu FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Daegu FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jeju United FC have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Jeju United FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Daegu FC, 1.50 for Jeju United FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Daegu FC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Jeju United FC managing 1 and 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Daegu FC 4–0 Jeju United FC — a Daegu FC win.
The head-to-head data gives Daegu FC an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 51% versus Jeju United FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 41% | Jeju United FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.78 xG and Jeju United FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.072 / defence 1.030 | Jeju United FC attack 0.770 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Jeju United FC's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 66 games and Jeju United FC's last 66.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 56% | Draw 23% | Jeju United FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 1.78 | Draw 4.31 | Jeju United FC 4.87. The model has a clear lean to Daegu FC (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Daegu FC 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Jeju United FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 56% | Draw 23% | Jeju United FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Daegu FC 1.78 / Jeju United FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.072 / def 1.030 | Jeju United FC attack 0.770 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Jeju United FC xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC FAQs
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Sunday 3 November 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC 2 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC is a K League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 3) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 56% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeju United FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (1.07) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.77x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Daegu FC's last 66 games and Jeju United FC's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.31
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.76
0.98
Jeju United FC xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
3%
28.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.98 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 22W 26D 25L from 73 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 35L across 73 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.21 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 12W 16D 8L from their last 36 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 9W 6D 21L across their last 36 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Daegu FC (Home) vs Jeju United FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC Form FAQs
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 22W 26D 25L in their last 73 games (1.26 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 25W 13D 35L in their last 73 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 23 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won Jeju United FC 0-4 Daegu FC on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daegu FC have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2025: Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 53%, Jeju United FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Daegu FC) and 44% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daegu FC and Jeju United FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 50% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Daegu FC's recent games and 44% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Jeju United FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 67% of Jeju United FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Relegation Round - 3, as Daegu FC and Jeju United FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.78 xG and Jeju United FC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jeju United FC outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Jeju United FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 56% | Draw 23% | Jeju United FC 21%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 41%, Jeju United FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.26 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.