Al-Fateh 4-1 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Abha meet at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season.
Abha's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al-Fateh's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Fateh 2W, Abha 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Abha half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 56% versus Abha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Fateh 67% | Abha 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.31 xG and Abha 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.381 / defence 1.110 | Abha attack 0.709 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.433. Al-Fateh carry an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Al-Fateh games / 39 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 64% | Draw 19% | Abha 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Abha 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Abha 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 64% | Draw 19% | Abha 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Fateh 2.31 / Abha 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.381 / def 1.110 | Abha attack 0.709 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Abha xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Abha kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Abha kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 October 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Al-Fateh 4 - 1 Abha.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Abha part of?
Al-Fateh vs Abha is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 64% chance of winning, Abha a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Fateh and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Abha?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 1 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Abha in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Abha (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.38x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.71x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.28
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.44
1.13
Abha xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
10%
10.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
2%
58.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.13 for Abha, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 18W 6D 15L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha's form line: 12W 4D 23L from 39 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Fateh are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L).
On the road, Abha have gone 3W 1D 15L from 19 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.03 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 18W 6D 15L in their last 39 games (1.54 PPG), while Abha have gone 12W 4D 23L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Abha away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.47 PPG; Abha away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 3-0 on 10 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Abha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Abha have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Abha 2-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Abha?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 53%, Abha 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Fateh) and 58% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Abha in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 42% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 58% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Abha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Abha 4-1 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 2.31 xG and Abha 1.13 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.38 / defence 1.11 against Abha attack 0.71 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 64% | Draw 19% | Abha 17%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 67%, Abha 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Abha's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Abha (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.