Al-Hazm 4-3 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hazm and Al-Raed meet at Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hazm have collected 0.33 PPG across 9 Pro League outings this season: 0W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 2.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.56 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ar-Rass Stadium, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 3L this season (4 games, 0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Raed (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.33 for Al-Hazm, 0.50 for Al-Raed — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Hazm, 1 for Al-Raed and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Al-Hazm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 78% versus Al-Raed 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 56% | Al-Raed 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.95 xG and Al-Raed 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.738 / defence 1.440 | Al-Raed attack 0.701 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.417. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Al-Hazm games / 39 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Raed 2.08. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Hazm 75% | Al-Raed 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Hazm 0.95 / Al-Raed 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.738 / def 1.440 | Al-Raed attack 0.701 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al-Raed xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Al-Hazm 4 - 3 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 25% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Raed?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hazm 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Raed in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-3D-6L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 2.56 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.74x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (0.70x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
25%
4.00
27%
3.73
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.38
1.43
Al-Raed xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
6%
16.75
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.3 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.43 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hazm come into this having played 9 games, going 0W 3D 6L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.33 PPG for Al-Hazm against 0.56 for Al-Raed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hazm's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 games (0.33 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Raed's away record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.25 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
0
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Raed?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al-Raed have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Al-Raed 2-0 Al-Hazm.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al-Raed tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 75%, Al-Raed 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Hazm) and 25% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 50%; Al-Raed in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 25% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 25% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Hazm defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al-Raed 4-3 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.95 xG and Al-Raed 1.43 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.74 / defence 1.44 against Al-Raed attack 0.70 / defence 0.88, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 48%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Al-Hazm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 56%, Al-Raed 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 0.33 PPG, Al-Raed 0.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hazm win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.