Al-Nassr 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Al-Nassr welcome Damac to Al Awal Park at King Saud University. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's home record at Al Awal Park at King Saud University: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Damac — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Nassr: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Damac, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 3–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Damac trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 44% versus Damac 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 64% | Damac 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.14 xG and Damac 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.304 / defence 1.109 | Damac attack 0.906 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.417. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Al-Nassr games / 39 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 21% | Damac 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Damac 4.00. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 60% | Damac 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 21% | Damac 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Nassr 2.14 / Damac 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.304 / def 1.109 | Damac attack 0.906 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Damac xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Damac kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Damac kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Al-Nassr 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Damac part of?
Al-Nassr vs Damac is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 54% chance of winning, Damac a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Nassr and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Damac?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Nassr 4W | Draws 0 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Damac in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Damac (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.30) and Damac's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
54%
1.85
21%
4.82
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.57
1.43
Damac xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
3%
33.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.43 for Damac, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 39 games, going 26W 8D 5L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.18 PPG from 39 outings (11W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 14W 4D 1L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 26W 8D 5L in their last 39 games (2.21 PPG), while Damac have gone 11W 13D 15L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Damac away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.42 PPG; Damac away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Damac in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Damac runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2021, when Al-Nassr won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Damac specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 10, Damac have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Damac?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 53%, Damac 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al-Nassr and 53% for Damac. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Damac in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Nassr's games and 58% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Nassr's matches and 53% of Damac's.
Do Al-Nassr and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Damac in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Damac 2-1 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.14 xG and Damac 1.43 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.30 / defence 1.11 against Damac attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 21% | Damac 25%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 64%, Damac 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.