Al-Ettifaq 1-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Thursday 5 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Ettifaq's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fateh stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Al-Fateh have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

Despite the home advantage, Al-Fateh have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Al-Ettifaq. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2023, ended Al-Ettifaq 0–4 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fateh win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Fateh have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 42% versus Al-Fateh 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 45% | Al-Fateh 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.94 xG and Al-Fateh 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.242 / defence 1.016 | Al-Fateh attack 1.199 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.432. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 38 games and Al-Fateh's last 38.

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 43% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.32 | Draw 4.64 | Al-Fateh 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.75) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), but Al-Ettifaq carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 50% (last 10 away games).

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