GIL Vicente 1-2 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIL Vicente and Famalicao meet at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
GIL Vicente (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.00 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIL Vicente lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Famalicao winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 51% versus Famalicao 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 46% | Famalicao 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.16 xG and Famalicao 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.803 / defence 0.848 | Famalicao attack 0.822 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.204. Data: 60 GIL Vicente games / 59 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 43% | Draw 31% | Famalicao 26%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Famalicao 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 50% | Famalicao 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 43% | Draw 31% | Famalicao 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG GIL Vicente 1.16 / Famalicao 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.803 / def 0.848 | Famalicao attack 0.822 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Famalicao xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Famalicao kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
GIL Vicente 1 - 2 Famalicao.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao part of?
GIL Vicente vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 43% chance of winning, Famalicao a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both GIL Vicente and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Famalicao?
Record (5 meetings): GIL Vicente 2W | Draws 2 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Famalicao in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 0.80x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.82x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
43%
2.34
31%
3.19
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.00
0.84
Famalicao xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.84 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 16W 14D 29L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao's form line: 19W 15D 25L from 59 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.22 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.45 PPG from 29 outings (10W 12D 7L).
On the road, Famalicao have gone 6W 9D 14L from 29 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.07 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Famalicao in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 16W 14D 29L in their last 59 games (1.05 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 19W 15D 25L in their last 59 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Famalicao away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.45 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 1 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
4
Draws
3
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, Famalicao have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 5-0 Famalicao.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 45%, Famalicao 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (GIL Vicente) and 45% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 31% of games; Famalicao in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 52% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 45% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Famalicao tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Famalicao defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat GIL Vicente 1-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.16 xG and Famalicao 0.84 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Famalicao outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.80 / defence 0.85 against Famalicao attack 0.82 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 43% | Draw 31% | Famalicao 26%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 46%, Famalicao 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.05 PPG, Famalicao 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.