Benfica 1-0 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Chaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benfica and Chaves meet at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Benfica's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benfica have posted 8W 2D 0L at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chaves (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Benfica. A 1.70 PPG lead over Chaves (2.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Benfica, 1 for Chaves and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Benfica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Benfica — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Chaves — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 38% versus Chaves 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 62% | Chaves 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.45 xG and Chaves 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.560 / defence 0.694 | Chaves attack 0.721 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.214. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.560 — their λ of 2.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence rating of 0.694 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Benfica games / 60 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 78% | Draw 15% | Chaves 7%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | Chaves 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 60% | Chaves 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 78% | Draw 15% | Chaves 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 42% | xG Benfica 2.45 / Chaves 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.560 / def 0.694 | Chaves attack 0.721 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Benfica (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Chaves xG
42%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Chaves kick off?
Benfica vs Chaves kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Chaves?
Benfica 1 - 0 Chaves.
Where is Benfica vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Chaves part of?
Benfica vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 78% chance of winning, Chaves a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Benfica and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Chaves?
Record (3 meetings): Benfica 2W | Draws 0 | Chaves 1W.
What form are Benfica and Chaves in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Chaves (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.56) and Chaves's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chaves's attack (0.72x) against Benfica's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
78%
1.29
15%
6.54
7%
14.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
3 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.06
0.61
Chaves xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.54
15%
Draw
14.20
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
9%
11.57
Win to Nil
42%
2.36
1%
164.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Benfica and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Benfica and 0.61 for Chaves, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Chaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benfica's recent record stands at 48W 7D 5L from 60 games, a 2.52 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chaves, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 27L across 60 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chaves heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 26W 3D 1L from 30 games — 2.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chaves's away record stands at 7W 9D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benfica are averaging 2.37 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Chaves in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 48W 7D 5L in their last 60 games (2.52 PPG), while Chaves have gone 16W 17D 27L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Chaves away?
Benfica's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.70 PPG; Chaves away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Benfica or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Chaves in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Benfica have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 5-0 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benfica have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Benfica
0
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Benfica have won 3, Chaves have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when Benfica 1-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Chaves?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Chaves see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 47%, Chaves 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Benfica) and 40% (Chaves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Chaves in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Benfica's recent matches and 40% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Benfica's matches and 40% of Chaves's.
Do Benfica and Chaves tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Chaves in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Chaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Chaves 1-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.45 xG and Chaves 0.61 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benfica fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.56 / defence 0.69 against Chaves attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 78% | Draw 15% | Chaves 7%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 62%, Chaves 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chaves's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.