Benfica 1-0 Chaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Benfica at 78% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Chaves encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Benfica and Chaves meet at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Benfica's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Benfica have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Chaves (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Chaves's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Benfica. A 1.70 PPG lead over Chaves (2.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Benfica edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Benfica 2–0 Chaves — a Benfica win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Benfica — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.

Chaves — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 38% versus Chaves 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 62% | Chaves 47%). Note also that Chaves surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Benfica recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.45 xG and Chaves 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.560 / defence 0.694 | Chaves attack 0.721 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.214. Benfica carry an above-average attack rating of 1.560 — their 2.45 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Chaves's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.61. Benfica have a tight defence (rating 0.694), which is pulling Chaves's projected output down. Data: built from Benfica's last 60 games and Chaves's last 60.

Result probabilities: Benfica 78% | Draw 15% | Chaves 7%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.29 | Draw 6.54 | Chaves 14.20. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (78%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 78% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Benfica's last 10 home games and Chaves's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Benfica 60% (last 10 home games) | Chaves 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights