Farense 1-3 FC Porto – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Porto at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Farense vs FC Porto encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Farense welcome FC Porto to Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 28 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Farense have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Farense have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 home games (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Porto stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FC Porto away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Porto are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Farense, 1 for FC Porto and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Farense 1–2 FC Porto — a FC Porto win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Farense trading profile (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
FC Porto trading profile (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 44% versus FC Porto 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 56% | FC Porto 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 0.92 xG and FC Porto 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.841 / defence 0.881 | FC Porto attack 0.994 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.319. FC Porto bring a tight defence (rating 0.737, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Farense's projected output down. Data: built from Farense's last 18 games and FC Porto's last 52.
Result probabilities: Farense 29% | Draw 30% | FC Porto 41%. Fair-value odds: Farense 3.48 | Draw 3.30 | FC Porto 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Porto at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Porto offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Farense 33% (last 9 home games) | FC Porto 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs FC Porto | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 19 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 29% | Draw 30% | FC Porto 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Farense 0.92 / FC Porto 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.841 / def 0.881 | FC Porto attack 0.994 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.16
FC Porto xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Farense vs FC Porto FAQs
What time does Farense vs FC Porto kick off?
Farense vs FC Porto kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs FC Porto?
Farense 1 - 3 FC Porto.
Where is Farense vs FC Porto being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs FC Porto part of?
Farense vs FC Porto is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 19) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs FC Porto?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 29% chance of winning, FC Porto a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs FC Porto?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Farense and FC Porto will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Farense vs FC Porto have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Farense's attack rating (0.84) and FC Porto's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Porto's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Farense's last 18 games and FC Porto's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
29%
3.48
30%
3.30
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Farense xG
Total xG
2.07
1.16
FC Porto xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
9%
11.03
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.5 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Farense vs FC Porto Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs FC Porto?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Farense and FC Porto expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Farense and 1.16 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs FC Porto?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Farense have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 7W 3D 8L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
FC Porto's form line: 13W 2D 3L from 18 games, 2.28 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, FC Porto are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Farense.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Farense have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 9 home games (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, FC Porto have gone 6W 1D 2L from their last 9 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Farense are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC Porto are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: FC Porto in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
FC Porto
Blended
Farense (Home) vs FC Porto (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Farense
Blended
FC Porto
Blended
❓ Farense vs FC Porto Form FAQs
What form are Farense and FC Porto in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 7W 3D 8L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while FC Porto have gone 13W 2D 3L in their last 18 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or FC Porto away?
FC Porto's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.56 PPG; FC Porto away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Farense or FC Porto been keeping clean sheets recently?
Farense have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, FC Porto in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Porto have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Farense's record when hosting FC Porto specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Farense
0
Draws
4
FC Porto
Recent Meetings
❓ Farense vs FC Porto H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and FC Porto?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Farense have won 0, FC Porto have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Farense and FC Porto last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2025: Farense 0-1 FC Porto.
Who has won more matches between Farense and FC Porto?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 33%, FC Porto 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Farense) and 44% (FC Porto).
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; FC Porto in 33%; Farense have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / FC Porto away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Farense vs FC Porto Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Farense and FC Porto matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Farense's recent matches and 44% of FC Porto's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Farense and FC Porto matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Farense's recent games and 44% of FC Porto's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Farense and FC Porto matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Farense's recent matches and 67% of FC Porto's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Porto cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Farense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat Farense 1-3 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 0.92 xG and FC Porto 1.16 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Porto outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.84 / defence 0.88 against FC Porto attack 0.99 / defence 0.74, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 29% | Draw 30% | FC Porto 41%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 56%, FC Porto 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
FC Porto's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Farense (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Porto (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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