Estrela 1-4 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estrela vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estrela host Benfica at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 29 January 2024 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estrela stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estrela's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Estádio José Gomes this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Benfica — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Estrela, 1 for Benfica and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Benfica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Estrela in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Benfica in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 60% versus Benfica 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 45% | Benfica 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 0.75 xG and Benfica 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.817 / defence 1.239 | Benfica attack 1.162 / defence 0.605. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.315. Benfica's defence strength of 0.605 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 18 Estrela games / 52 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 14% | Draw 21% | Benfica 64%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 7.14 | Draw 4.76 | Benfica 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estrela 60% | Benfica 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Monday 29 Jan 2024, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 14% | Draw 21% | Benfica 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 45% | xG Estrela 0.75 / Benfica 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.817 / def 1.239 | Benfica attack 1.162 / def 0.605 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Benfica (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Benfica xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Benfica kick off?
Estrela vs Benfica kicked off at 18:45 on Monday 29 January 2024 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Benfica?
Estrela 1 - 4 Benfica.
Where is Estrela vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Benfica part of?
Estrela vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 14% chance of winning, Benfica a 64% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Estrela and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Benfica?
Record (1 meetings): Estrela 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 1W.
What form are Estrela and Benfica in?
Estrela (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Benfica (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estrela's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Benfica's defensive record (0.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estrela's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
14%
7.08
21%
4.67
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.65
1.89
Benfica xG
7.08
14%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
15%
6.65
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
2%
47.07
30%
3.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Estrela and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Estrela and 1.89 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estrela's recent record stands at 5W 6D 9L from 20 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 15W 4D 1L across 20 games — 2.45 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estrela heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estrela have managed 4W 1D 5L from 10 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 7W 2D 1L across 10 trips, a 2.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estrela are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.10 scored and 0.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estrela have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Benfica in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Benfica have gone 15W 4D 1L in their last 20 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.30 PPG; Benfica away: 2.30 PPG.
Have Estrela or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estrela have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Benfica in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estrela and Benfica runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2026, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estrela's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Estrela
0
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Benfica?
From 6 meetings on record, Estrela have won 0, Benfica have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Benfica 4-0 Estrela.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 60%, Benfica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estrela) and 60% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 50%; Estrela have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Estrela's games and 50% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estrela vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Estrela's matches and 60% of Benfica's.
Do Estrela and Benfica tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Benfica in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Estrela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estrela 1-4 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 0.75 xG and Benfica 1.89 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against Benfica attack 1.16 / defence 0.60, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 14% | Draw 21% | Benfica 64%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 45%, Benfica 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Estrela (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.