Stal Mielec 2-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 41%, yet in-form Radomiak Radom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stal Mielec welcome Radomiak Radom to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Ekstraklasa (matchday 6). Kick-off is Friday 25 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stal Mielec stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stal Mielec at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Radomiak Radom have recorded 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Radomiak Radom's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Stal Mielec's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Stal Mielec have won 1, Radomiak Radom 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2023, ended Stal Mielec 0–1 Radomiak Radom — a Radomiak Radom win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stal Mielec trading profile (last 39 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 45% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Radomiak Radom trading profile (last 39 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 36% versus Radomiak Radom 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stal Mielec 31% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.19 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 1.013 / defence 0.966 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.104 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 0.931. Data: built from Stal Mielec's last 39 games and Radomiak Radom's last 39.
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 41% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 30%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.47 | Draw 3.44 | Radomiak Radom 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stal Mielec as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Radomiak Radom (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stal Mielec 50% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 6 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 41% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Stal Mielec 1.19 / Radomiak Radom 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 1.013 / def 0.966 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.104 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.414 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Radomiak Radom xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 25 August 2023 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Stal Mielec 2 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 6) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 41% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 1.01x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stal Mielec's last 39 games and Radomiak Radom's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
41%
2.47
29%
3.44
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.19
0.99
Radomiak Radom xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.99 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 12W 12D 15L from 39 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 16L across 39 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.23 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 7W 9D 4L from their last 20 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 9W 4D 7L across their last 20 away games, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.05 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Stal Mielec (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stal Mielec
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 8D 16L in their last 39 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.50 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 16 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Stal Mielec have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2025: Stal Mielec 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 40%, Radomiak Radom 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Stal Mielec) and 45% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 40% of games; Radomiak Radom in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 40% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 45% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 45% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 65% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Radomiak Radom 2-0 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.19 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.99 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stal Mielec beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 1.01 / defence 0.97 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.10 / defence 0.83, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 41% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 30%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 31%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.23 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.