Widzew Łódź 0-2 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Widzew Łódź face Slask Wroclaw.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 6). Kick-off is Friday 25 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Widzew Łódź stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Widzew Łódź at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Slask Wroclaw have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Slask Wroclaw have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Widzew Łódź at 1.00 PPG versus Slask Wroclaw's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Slask Wroclaw 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2023, ended Widzew Łódź 1–0 Slask Wroclaw — a Widzew Łódź win.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 47% versus Slask Wroclaw 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 47% | Slask Wroclaw 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.61 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.976 / defence 1.290 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.994 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 0.920. Widzew Łódź's defence rating of 1.290 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slask Wroclaw's projected output up. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 39 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 38.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 48% | Draw 25% | Slask Wroclaw 28%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.10 | Draw 4.06 | Slask Wroclaw 3.59. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Widzew Łódź's last 10 home games and Slask Wroclaw's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 50% (last 10 home games) | Slask Wroclaw 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 6 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 48% | Draw 25% | Slask Wroclaw 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Widzew Łódź 1.61 / Slask Wroclaw 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.976 / def 1.290 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.994 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.421 / away 0.920 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Slask Wroclaw xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw FAQs
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 25 August 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 2 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 6) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 48% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Slask Wroclaw's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Widzew Łódź's last 39 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
48%
2.10
25%
4.06
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.79
1.18
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
6%
18.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.18 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 9D 16L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Slask Wroclaw sit at 1.11 PPG from 38 outings (10W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.26 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 7W 3D 9L across their last 19 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Slask Wroclaw have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 19 away games (3W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.08 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 61%.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
Widzew Łódź (Home) vs Slask Wroclaw (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw Form FAQs
What form are Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 10W 12D 16L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.26 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Feb 2025, when Slask Wroclaw won Slask Wroclaw 3-0 Widzew Łódź.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
3
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Slask Wroclaw 3-3 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 53%, Slask Wroclaw 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Widzew Łódź) and 32% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 53% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 32% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 63% of Slask Wroclaw's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Widzew Łódź 0-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.61 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.18 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Widzew Łódź fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.98 / defence 1.29 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.99 / defence 1.17, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 48% | Draw 25% | Slask Wroclaw 28%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Slask Wroclaw win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 47%, Slask Wroclaw 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.26 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.