Pogon Szczecin 3-4 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 6 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Legia Warszawa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Legia Warszawa — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Legia Warszawa and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 58% versus Legia Warszawa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 56% | Legia Warszawa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.43 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.087 / defence 1.162 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.973 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.051. Data: 42 Pogon Szczecin games / 41 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 30%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Legia Warszawa 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Pogon Szczecin dominate the H2H record, yet Legia Warszawa are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Legia Warszawa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.43 / Legia Warszawa 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.087 / def 1.162 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.973 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Legia Warszawa xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 4 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 42% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
Record (3 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.09) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
42%
2.41
28%
3.54
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.62
1.19
Legia Warszawa xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.19 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 41 games, going 20W 9D 12L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 2.02 PPG from 41 outings (24W 11D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.68 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 10W 4D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L). That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.73 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 20W 9D 12L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 24W 11D 6L in their last 41 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.79 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Legia Warszawa have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 63%, Legia Warszawa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Pogon Szczecin) and 42% (Legia Warszawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 32%; Pogon Szczecin have failed to score in 26% of games; Legia Warszawa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 47% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 42% of Legia Warszawa's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Legia Warszawa defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Pogon Szczecin 3-4 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.43 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.19 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 30%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 56%, Legia Warszawa 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.68 PPG, Legia Warszawa 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.