Radomiak Radom 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Radomiak Radom take on Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Radomiaka Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Radomiak Radom stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Radomiak Radom at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Piast Gliwice — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Piast Gliwice away from home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.50 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Radomiak Radom's 30% BTTS rate and Piast Gliwice's 30% (from Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Piast Gliwice's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Radomiak Radom 0–1 Piast Gliwice — a Piast Gliwice win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 38% versus Piast Gliwice 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 38% | Piast Gliwice 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 0.93 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.006 / defence 1.098 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.912 / defence 0.676. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 0.926. Piast Gliwice bring a tight defence (rating 0.676, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Radomiak Radom's projected output down. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 40 games and Piast Gliwice's last 40.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 33% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 33%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.01 | Draw 2.97 | Piast Gliwice 3.02. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Piast Gliwice's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 30% (last 10 home games) | Piast Gliwice 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 7 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 33% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Radomiak Radom 0.93 / Piast Gliwice 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.006 / def 1.098 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.912 / def 0.676 | league avg home 1.367 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Piast Gliwice xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 7) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 33% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.01) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 40 games and Piast Gliwice's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
34%
2.97
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
1.86
0.93
Piast Gliwice xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 14.5 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.93 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 15W 8D 17L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 15W 12D 13L from 40 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.32 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.16 PPG from their last 19 home games (6W 4D 9L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 8W 7D 4L from their last 19 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.02 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Piast Gliwice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 8D 17L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 12D 13L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.16 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Piast Gliwice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
4
Draws
3
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Radomiak Radom 0-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 37%, Piast Gliwice 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Radomiak Radom and 16% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 42%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 47% of games; Piast Gliwice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 37% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 16% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 63% of Piast Gliwice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 0.93 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.93 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.01 / defence 1.10 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.91 / defence 0.68, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 33% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 38%, Piast Gliwice 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.32 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.