Piast Gliwice 0-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 54%, yet in-form Jagiellonia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Jagiellonia travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 6W 4D 0L at Stadion Miejski — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Jagiellonia's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Piast Gliwice's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Jagiellonia and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 46% versus Jagiellonia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 33% | Jagiellonia 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.86 xG and Jagiellonia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.946 / defence 0.963 | Jagiellonia attack 1.203 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 0.997. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.203 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Piast Gliwice games / 43 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 54% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 24%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Jagiellonia 4.17. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jagiellonia (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 40% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 54% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.86 / Jagiellonia 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.946 / def 0.963 | Jagiellonia attack 1.203 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.549 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Jagiellonia xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 54% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia?
Record (6 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 4 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.41
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.01
1.16
Jagiellonia xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
4%
27.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.16 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 19D 11L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.88 PPG from 43 outings (24W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 9W 9D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 2.16 scored and 1.42 conceded. Jagiellonia's attacking output running into Piast Gliwice's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 65%.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 13W 19D 11L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 24W 9D 10L in their last 43 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Jagiellonia away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.71 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
6
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 48%, Jagiellonia 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Piast Gliwice) and 76% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Piast Gliwice's games and 76% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Piast Gliwice's matches and 76% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Piast Gliwice 0-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.86 xG and Jagiellonia 1.16 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Jagiellonia attack 1.20 / defence 1.27, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 54% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 24%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 33%, Jagiellonia 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.