Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Stal Mielec at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 30 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Cracovia Krakow have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Stal Mielec 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 52% versus Stal Mielec 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 43% | Stal Mielec 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.82 xG and Stal Mielec 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.161 / defence 1.234 | Stal Mielec attack 0.853 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 0.995. Data: 43 Cracovia Krakow games / 42 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 55% | Draw 23% | Stal Mielec 22%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Stal Mielec 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Stal Mielec 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 55% | Draw 23% | Stal Mielec 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.82 / Stal Mielec 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.161 / def 1.234 | Stal Mielec attack 0.853 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.530 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Stal Mielec xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 30 September 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 55% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec?
Record (6 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 2W | Draws 3 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Stal Mielec's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.36
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.87
1.05
Stal Mielec xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
4%
28.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.05 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 15D 13L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 1.19 PPG from 42 outings (13W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.36 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 6W 8D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Stal Mielec have taken 0.65 points per game from 20 outings (3W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stal Mielec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.12 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 14W 15D 13L in their last 42 games (1.36 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Stal Mielec away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.30 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 60%, Stal Mielec 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Cracovia Krakow) and 50% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 50% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 50% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 10, as Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.82 xG and Stal Mielec 1.05 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.16 / defence 1.23 against Stal Mielec attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 55% | Draw 23% | Stal Mielec 22%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 43%, Stal Mielec 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.36 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.