Motor Lublin 2-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Motor Lublin host Slask Wroclaw at Arena Lublin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Motor Lublin — All Games: 2W 3D 4L from 9 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Motor Lublin's home record at Arena Lublin: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slask Wroclaw stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slask Wroclaw away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Motor Lublin) versus 1.30 (Slask Wroclaw). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Motor Lublin in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 22% versus Slask Wroclaw 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Motor Lublin 11% | Slask Wroclaw 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 0.84 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.530 / defence 1.099 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.013 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 0.989. Motor Lublin's attack strength of 0.530 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Motor Lublin games / 41 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 28% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 41%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Slask Wroclaw 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slask Wroclaw at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Motor Lublin 20% | Slask Wroclaw 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Arena Lublin • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 28% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Motor Lublin 0.84 / Slask Wroclaw 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 0.530 / def 1.099 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.013 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.542 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Slask Wroclaw xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Arena Lublin.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Motor Lublin 2 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lublin.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 28% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Motor Lublin and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Slask Wroclaw?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Motor Lublin and Slask Wroclaw in?
Motor Lublin (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Motor Lublin's attack at 0.53x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Motor Lublin's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
28%
3.62
31%
3.22
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
1.94
1.10
Slask Wroclaw xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
9%
10.90
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 15.8 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.10 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Motor Lublin's recent record stands at 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 3L across 9 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Motor Lublin on 1.00 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Motor Lublin have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Motor Lublin are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.11 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Motor Lublin have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Motor Lublin and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Motor Lublin's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.00 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Motor Lublin or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Motor Lublin
1
Draws
0
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Slask Wroclaw?
From 2 meetings on record, Motor Lublin have won 1, Slask Wroclaw have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Motor Lublin and Slask Wroclaw?
Motor Lublin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Motor Lublin 20% BTTS, Slask Wroclaw 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Motor Lublin and 40% for Slask Wroclaw.
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Motor Lublin have failed to score in 60% of games; Slask Wroclaw in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Motor Lublin play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 40% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 40% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Motor Lublin have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Slask Wroclaw 2-1 at Arena Lublin, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 0.84 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.10 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Motor Lublin beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.53 / defence 1.10 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 9/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 28% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 41%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Motor Lublin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 11%, Slask Wroclaw 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.00 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.