Jagiellonia 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa encounter.

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Match Analysis

Jagiellonia host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 6 October 2024 at 20:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Jagiellonia have gone 7W 0D 3L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Jagiellonia have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Legia Warszawa — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Legia Warszawa's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Jagiellonia have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Jagiellonia have won 1, Legia Warszawa 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2024, ended Jagiellonia 1–1 Legia Warszawa — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 64% and Legia Warszawa 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 73% | Legia Warszawa 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.47 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.231 / defence 1.044 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.965 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.109. Data: built from Jagiellonia's last 44 games and Legia Warszawa's last 44.

Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 45% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 29%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.21 | Draw 3.85 | Legia Warszawa 3.48. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Jagiellonia's last 10 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jagiellonia 40% (last 10 home games) | Legia Warszawa 60% (last 10 away games).

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