Legia Warszawa 1-1 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Legia Warszawa face Puszcza Niepołomice.

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Match Analysis

Legia Warszawa host Puszcza Niepołomice at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Legia Warszawa — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Puszcza Niepołomice stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 7L across their last 9 road games (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.44 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Legia Warszawa) versus 1.20 (Puszcza Niepołomice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Legia Warszawa have won 0, Puszcza Niepołomice 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Legia Warszawa 1–1 Puszcza Niepołomice — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Puszcza Niepołomice in-play and half-time data (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 47% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 47% | Puszcza Niepołomice 53%). Note also that Puszcza Niepołomice surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while Legia Warszawa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.09 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.093 / defence 0.940 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.926 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.244. Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating of 1.327 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Legia Warszawa's projected output up. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 54 games and Puszcza Niepołomice's last 19.

Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 60% | Draw 22% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.67 | Draw 4.50 | Puszcza Niepołomice 5.53. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and Puszcza Niepołomice's last 9 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 50% (last 10 home games) | Puszcza Niepołomice 67% (last 9 away games).

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