1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees FC Augsburg travel to PreZero Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 2W 4D 4L at PreZero Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. FC Augsburg's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of 1899 Hoffenheim's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1899 Hoffenheim register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, FC Augsburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1 for FC Augsburg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 75% and FC Augsburg 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 69% | FC Augsburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 xG and FC Augsburg 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.870 / defence 1.213 | FC Augsburg attack 1.155 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.423. Data: 61 1899 Hoffenheim games / 61 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 22% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 53%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | FC Augsburg 1.89. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
1899 Hoffenheim dominate the H2H record, yet FC Augsburg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 80% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 22% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 / FC Augsburg 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.870 / def 1.213 | FC Augsburg attack 1.155 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.99
FC Augsburg xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 22% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
Record (5 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 3W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (0.87) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
22%
4.48
25%
4.05
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.25
1.99
FC Augsburg xG
4.48
22%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
14%
7.34
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
3%
32.91
15%
6.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.99 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 19W 12D 30L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 18W 16D 27L from 61 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.13 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 7W 6D 17L from 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.41 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 66%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 19W 12D 30L in their last 61 games (1.13 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 18W 16D 27L in their last 61 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or FC Augsburg away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.20 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
1899 Hoffenheim
4
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1899 Hoffenheim at 77%, FC Augsburg at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 63% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 67% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 63% of FC Augsburg's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat FC Augsburg 3-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 xG and FC Augsburg 1.99 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.87 / defence 1.21 against FC Augsburg attack 1.16 / defence 0.90, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 22% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 53%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a 1899 Hoffenheim win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 69%, FC Augsburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.13 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.