Borussia Dortmund 0-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Borussia Dortmund face VfB Stuttgart.

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Match Analysis

Borussia Dortmund host VfB Stuttgart at BVB Stadion Dortmund in Bundesliga (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Borussia Dortmund stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Borussia Dortmund's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, VfB Stuttgart have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 2.30 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Borussia Dortmund have won 2, VfB Stuttgart 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Borussia Dortmund 1–2 VfB Stuttgart — a VfB Stuttgart win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Borussia Dortmund trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

VfB Stuttgart trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 59% and VfB Stuttgart 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 66% | VfB Stuttgart 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.82 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.209 / defence 1.034 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.118 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.429. Data: built from Borussia Dortmund's last 61 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 61.

Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 41% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 34%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.46 | Draw 3.87 | VfB Stuttgart 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (1.82 / 1.65) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Dortmund's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Dortmund 70% (last 10 home games) | VfB Stuttgart 50% (last 10 away games).

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