Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
1899 Hoffenheim travel to BayArena to take on Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 9W 1D 0L — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1899 Hoffenheim — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.90 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, 1899 Hoffenheim 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Bayer Leverkusen 3–2 1899 Hoffenheim — a Bayer Leverkusen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bayer Leverkusen trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 52% and 1899 Hoffenheim 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayer Leverkusen 68% | 1899 Hoffenheim 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.28 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.183 / defence 0.611 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.143 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.389. Bayer Leverkusen have a tight defence (rating 0.611), which is pulling 1899 Hoffenheim's projected output down. Data: built from Bayer Leverkusen's last 60 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 60.
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 66% | Draw 21% | 1899 Hoffenheim 13%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.52 | Draw 4.80 | 1899 Hoffenheim 7.43. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (66%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 home games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bayer Leverkusen 30% (last 10 home games) | 1899 Hoffenheim 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 66% | Draw 21% | 1899 Hoffenheim 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.28 / 1899 Hoffenheim 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.183 / def 0.611 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.143 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
0.97
1899 Hoffenheim xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim FAQs
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 66% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and 1899 Hoffenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bayer Leverkusen's attack rating (1.18) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bayer Leverkusen's last 60 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
66%
1.52
21%
4.80
13%
7.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.25
0.97
1899 Hoffenheim xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
7.43
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
10%
9.79
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
1%
72.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.97 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 36W 12D 12L from 60 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 29L across 60 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1899 Hoffenheim heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 19W 5D 6L from their last 30 home games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 9W 6D 15L across their last 30 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.53 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 75%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen (Home) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim Form FAQs
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 36W 12D 12L in their last 60 games (2.00 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 19W 12D 29L in their last 60 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.07 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or 1899 Hoffenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
1899 Hoffenheim have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Aug 2022, when 1899 Hoffenheim won Bayer Leverkusen 0-3 1899 Hoffenheim.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
0
Draws
4
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 53%, 1899 Hoffenheim 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Bayer Leverkusen and 67% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bayer Leverkusen and 1899 Hoffenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 73% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bayer Leverkusen and 1899 Hoffenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 67% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and 1899 Hoffenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 87% of 1899 Hoffenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.28 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 0.97 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.18 / defence 0.61 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.14 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 66% | Draw 21% | 1899 Hoffenheim 13%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 68%, 1899 Hoffenheim 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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