FC Augsburg 2-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for FC Augsburg, 1.20 for Union Berlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC Augsburg, 0 for Union Berlin and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 66% versus Union Berlin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 58% | Union Berlin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.23 xG and Union Berlin 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.925 / defence 0.917 | Union Berlin attack 0.575 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.429. Data: 62 FC Augsburg games / 62 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 46% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.17 | Draw 2.94 | Union Berlin 4.76. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 80% | Union Berlin 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 46% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG FC Augsburg 1.23 / Union Berlin 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.925 / def 0.917 | Union Berlin attack 0.575 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Union Berlin xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 12 April 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg 2 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin part of?
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 46% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both FC Augsburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
Record (5 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 3 | Union Berlin 0W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.93) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.57x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
46%
2.19
34%
2.97
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
1.99
0.75
Union Berlin xG
2.19
46%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
6%
16.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 0.75 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 18W 16D 28L from 62 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 23L across 62 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.47 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 11W 10D 10L from 31 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 9W 5D 17L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.23 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 18W 16D 28L in their last 62 games (1.13 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 26W 13D 23L in their last 62 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Union Berlin away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.39 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.03 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, Union Berlin have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 64%, Union Berlin 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Augsburg) and 45% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 39% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 45% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Union Berlin 2-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.23 xG and Union Berlin 0.75 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Union Berlin attack 0.57 / defence 0.83, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 46% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 21%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 58%, Union Berlin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.13 PPG, Union Berlin 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.