Karviná 2-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates České Budějovice at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and České Budějovice meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Karviná's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Karviná's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
České Budějovice have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
České Budějovice's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
České Budějovice arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Karviná, 2 for České Budějovice and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Karviná 0–1 České Budějovice — a České Budějovice win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 50% versus České Budějovice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 58% | České Budějovice 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.40 xG and České Budějovice 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.616 / defence 1.633 | České Budějovice attack 0.850 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.205. Karviná's attack rating of 0.616 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.40. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.455 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Karviná's projected output up. Karviná's defence rating of 1.633 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing České Budějovice's projected output up. Data: built from Karviná's last 24 games and České Budějovice's last 54.
Result probabilities: Karviná 31% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 43%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.19 | Draw 3.98 | České Budějovice 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Karviná's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Karviná 40% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 31% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Karviná 1.40 / České Budějovice 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.616 / def 1.633 | České Budějovice attack 0.850 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.67
České Budějovice xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karviná vs České Budějovice FAQs
What time does Karviná vs České Budějovice kick off?
Karviná vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Karviná 2 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Karviná vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs České Budějovice part of?
Karviná vs České Budějovice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 31% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Karviná and České Budějovice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Karviná vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Karviná's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.85x) against Karviná's defence (1.63x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from Karviná's last 24 games and České Budějovice's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
31%
3.19
25%
3.98
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.07
1.67
České Budějovice xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
6%
16.99
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karviná vs České Budějovice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Karviná and 1.67 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná's recent record stands at 4W 4D 16L from 24 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 16L across 24 games — 0.75 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Karviná against 0.75 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 3W 1D 8L from their last 12 home games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 0W 2D 10L across their last 12 away games, a 0.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.04 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
Karviná (Home) vs České Budějovice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karviná
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Karviná vs České Budějovice Form FAQs
What form are Karviná and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 4W 4D 16L in their last 24 games (0.67 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 5W 3D 16L in their last 24 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or České Budějovice away?
Karviná's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.83 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Karviná and České Budějovice, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Karviná have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won Karviná 4-1 České Budějovice on 20 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Karviná
1
Draws
2
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Karviná vs České Budějovice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and České Budějovice?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Karviná have won 4, České Budějovice have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Karviná and České Budějovice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2025: České Budějovice 2-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and České Budějovice?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 50%, České Budějovice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Karviná and 67% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 42% of games; České Budějovice in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karviná vs České Budějovice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karviná and České Budějovice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Karviná's recent matches and 58% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karviná and České Budějovice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Karviná's matches and 67% of České Budějovice's.
Do Karviná and České Budějovice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Karviná's recent matches and 75% of České Budějovice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat České Budějovice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat České Budějovice 2-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.40 xG and České Budějovice 1.67 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.62 / defence 1.63 against České Budějovice attack 0.85 / defence 1.46, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 31% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 43%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 58%, České Budějovice 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.67 PPG, České Budějovice 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.