Pardubice 0-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pardubice face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Baník Ostrava at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pardubice stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Pardubice's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baník Ostrava — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pardubice 1.00 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Pardubice, 1 for Baník Ostrava and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Pardubice 1–1 Baník Ostrava — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 48% versus Baník Ostrava 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Baník Ostrava 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pardubice surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Baník Ostrava have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.22 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.869 / defence 1.057 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.075 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.201. Data: built from Pardubice's last 54 games and Baník Ostrava's last 54.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 32% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 39%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.09 | Draw 3.49 | Baník Ostrava 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pardubice 60% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 32% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Pardubice 1.22 / Baník Ostrava 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.869 / def 1.057 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.075 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Baník Ostrava xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 32% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pardubice and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.87x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 54 games and Baník Ostrava's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
32%
3.09
29%
3.49
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.59
1.36
Baník Ostrava xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.36 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pardubice's recent record stands at 18W 10D 31L from 59 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 25L across 59 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.08 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 9W 7D 13L from their last 29 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 9W 9D 11L across their last 29 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pardubice are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.46 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 18W 10D 31L in their last 59 games (1.08 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 21W 13D 25L in their last 59 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.17 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pardubice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Sep 2022, when Baník Ostrava won Baník Ostrava 3-0 Pardubice.
Pardubice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
2
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Baník Ostrava 1-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 48%, Baník Ostrava 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Pardubice) and 52% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Baník Ostrava matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Pardubice's games and 62% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Pardubice's recent games and 52% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Pardubice's recent matches and 66% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Pardubice 0-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.22 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.36 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.07 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 32% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 39%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Baník Ostrava 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.08 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.