Hradec Králové 2-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Karviná at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hradec Králové, 1 for Karviná and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Karviná winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Karviná in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 52% versus Karviná 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 36% | Karviná 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.50 xG and Karviná 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.950 / defence 0.899 | Karviná attack 0.771 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.236. Data: 55 Hradec Králové games / 25 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 51% | Draw 28% | Karviná 21%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Karviná 4.76. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 60% | Karviná 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 51% | Draw 28% | Karviná 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Hradec Králové 1.50 / Karviná 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.950 / def 0.899 | Karviná attack 0.771 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Karviná xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Karviná kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Hradec Králové 2 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Karviná part of?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 51% chance of winning, Karviná a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hradec Králové and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Record (3 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 1 | Karviná 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Karviná in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Karviná (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.95x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.57
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.35
0.86
Karviná xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.86 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 9D 10L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.76 PPG from 25 outings (5W 4D 16L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.08 PPG, Karviná on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 5W 4D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.50 points per game from 12 outings (1W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.00 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Karviná in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while Karviná have gone 5W 4D 16L in their last 25 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Karviná away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.58 PPG; Karviná away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Karviná in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Karviná runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karviná go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Hradec Králové won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Karviná have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Karviná see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 58%, Karviná 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hradec Králové) and 50% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Karviná in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 50% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 50% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Karviná tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Karviná in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Karviná 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Karviná 2-1 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.50 xG and Karviná 0.86 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Karviná attack 0.77 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 51% | Draw 28% | Karviná 21%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 36%, Karviná 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Karviná's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.08 PPG, Karviná 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.