Teplice 1-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 4W 4D 2L at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 1.50 PPG versus Slovácko's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Slovácko have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Teplice.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Slovácko winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slovácko have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 59% versus Slovácko 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 54% | Slovácko 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.40 xG and Slovácko 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.966 / defence 0.809 | Slovácko attack 1.047 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.201. Data: 54 Teplice games / 54 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 27%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Slovácko 3.70. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Slovácko 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Teplice 1.40 / Slovácko 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.966 / def 0.809 | Slovácko attack 1.047 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Teplice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Slovácko xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovácko kick off?
Teplice vs Slovácko kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Teplice 1 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Teplice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovácko part of?
Teplice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 45% chance of winning, Slovácko a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Teplice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
Record (3 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 0 | Slovácko 3W.
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Slovácko (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.97x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.50
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.42
1.02
Slovácko xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Teplice and 1.02 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice come into this having played 59 games, going 19W 16D 24L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.49 PPG from 59 outings (24W 16D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.24 PPG, Slovácko on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Teplice's home form reads 12W 11D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.24 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 19W 16D 24L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovácko away?
Teplice's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.62 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Slovácko in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
2
Draws
4
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Slovácko have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Slovácko.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 52%, Slovácko 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Teplice) and 52% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 28% of games; Slovácko in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Teplice's recent matches and 48% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Teplice's recent games and 52% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Slovácko share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Slovácko finished level at 1-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.40 xG and Slovácko 1.02 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Slovácko attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 27%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 54%, Slovácko 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.24 PPG, Slovácko 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.