Lask Linz 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Rapid Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 July 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lask Linz haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rapid Vienna haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lask Linz are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lask Linz register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rapid Vienna in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Rapid Vienna trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 69% and Rapid Vienna 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 50% | Rapid Vienna 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.36 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.980 / defence 1.000 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.976 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.349. Data: 22 Lask Linz games / 22 Rapid Vienna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 38% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 36%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Rapid Vienna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 60% | Rapid Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jul 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 38% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Lask Linz 1.36 / Rapid Vienna 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.980 / def 1.000 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.976 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Rapid Vienna xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 July 2023 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 38% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lask Linz's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.86
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.68
1.32
Rapid Vienna xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.32 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 14W 12D 6L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. Lask Linz haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 12W 6D 14L from 32 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. Rapid Vienna haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.69 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.88 PPG from 16 outings (9W 3D 4L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 2D 9L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.56 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 66%.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Pre-Season
Rapid Vienna
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 14W 12D 6L in their last 32 games (1.69 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 12W 6D 14L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.88 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 6, Rapid Vienna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lask Linz at 69%, Rapid Vienna at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Lask Linz and 62% for Rapid Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Lask Linz's games and 62% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Lask Linz's matches and 62% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.36 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.32 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 38% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 36%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 50%, Rapid Vienna 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.69 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.