Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior host Sukhothai FC at Mae Guang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 August 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Mae Guang Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at Mae Guang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lamphun Warrior carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lamphun Warrior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lamphun Warrior, 0 for Sukhothai FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 40% versus Sukhothai FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamphun Warrior 37% | Sukhothai FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.63 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.017 / defence 0.921 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.921 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.242. Data: 30 Lamphun Warrior games / 30 Sukhothai FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 51% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Sukhothai FC 4.00. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Sukhothai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Aug 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 51% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.63 / Sukhothai FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.017 / def 0.921 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.921 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sukhothai FC xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 14 August 2023 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 2 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 51% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Record (2 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 2W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.02) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.06
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.69
1.05
Sukhothai FC xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
5%
20.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.05 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 9D 12L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. Lamphun Warrior haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (8W 10D 12L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. Sukhothai FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.20 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (2W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.90 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Pre-Season
Sukhothai FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.53 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lamphun Warrior go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lamphun Warrior
0
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 47%, Sukhothai FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lamphun Warrior) and 33% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 40% of games; Sukhothai FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 60% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 33% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sukhothai FC defy the odds to beat Lamphun Warrior 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Lamphun Warrior 1-2 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.63 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sukhothai FC outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 51% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 25%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Sukhothai FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 37%, Sukhothai FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.20 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.