Trat FC 2-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trat FC face Chonburi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chonburi FC make the trip to Trat Provincial Central Stadium to face Trat FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 1). The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Chonburi FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Chonburi FC have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.35 xG and Chonburi FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Chonburi FC attack 0.964 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.218. Data: built from Trat FC's last 0 games and Chonburi FC's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Trat FC 37% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 2.70 | Draw 3.87 | Chonburi FC 2.69. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Trat FC 37% and Chonburi FC 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Trat FC 0 games, Chonburi FC 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 1 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 37% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Trat FC 1.35 / Chonburi FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Chonburi FC attack 0.964 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Trat FC and Chonburi FC level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Chonburi FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trat FC vs Chonburi FC FAQs
What time does Trat FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Trat FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Chonburi FC?
Trat FC 2 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Trat FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Trat FC vs Chonburi FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 1) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 37% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Trat FC and Chonburi FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trat FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Trat FC's attack rating (0.85) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (0.96x) against Trat FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Trat FC's last 0 games and Chonburi FC's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.87
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Trat FC xG
Total xG
2.70
1.35
Chonburi FC xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trat FC vs Chonburi FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.35 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Pre-Season
Chonburi FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Trat FC (Home) vs Chonburi FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trat FC
Pre-Season
Chonburi FC
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 26 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trat FC
1
Draws
1
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Trat FC vs Chonburi FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Chonburi FC?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Trat FC have won 0, Chonburi FC have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 May 2024: Chonburi FC 3-2 Trat FC.
Who has won more matches between Trat FC and Chonburi FC?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Trat FC and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Trat FC and Chonburi FC drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.35 xG and Chonburi FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Chonburi FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 37% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 37%, with Trat FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.