Alaves 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valencia make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Alaves have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 3 games: 1W 0D 2L. Last five: L W L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Valencia's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Valencia have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Valencia are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Feb 2022, ended Alaves 2–1 Valencia — a Alaves win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Valencia — key trading statistics (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 33% versus Valencia 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 33% | Valencia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.64 xG and Valencia 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.207 / defence 1.335 | Valencia attack 0.976 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.285. Alaves's defence rating of 1.335 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Valencia's projected output up. Data: built from Alaves's last 3 games and Valencia's last 41.
Result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 24% | Valencia 39%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.67 | Draw 4.21 | Valencia 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alaves 33% (last 3 games) | Valencia 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 24% | Valencia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Alaves 1.64 / Valencia 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 1.207 / def 1.335 | Valencia attack 0.976 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Valencia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Valencia xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Valencia FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Valencia kick off?
Alaves vs Valencia kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Alaves vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Valencia part of?
Alaves vs Valencia is a La Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 37% chance of winning, Valencia a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Alaves and Valencia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alaves vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alaves's attack at 1.21x the league average against Valencia's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (0.98x) against Alaves's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 3 games and Valencia's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
37%
2.67
24%
4.21
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Alaves xG
Total xG
3.31
1.67
Valencia xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Valencia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Alaves and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Alaves and 1.67 for Valencia, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L across their last five.
Valencia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia in 67%.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Valencia
Early Season
Alaves (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Early Season
Valencia
Early Season
❓ Alaves vs Valencia Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Valencia in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Valencia have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Alaves or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Valencia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Valencia have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won Valencia 3-0 Alaves on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Alaves
2
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Valencia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 4, Valencia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Valencia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 September 2026: Alaves 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Valencia?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Valencia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 33%, Valencia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Alaves) and 67% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 33%; Alaves have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Valencia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Valencia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alaves's recent matches and 67% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Valencia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Alaves's recent games and 67% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Valencia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Alaves's recent matches and 33% of Valencia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.64 xG and Valencia 1.67 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 1.21 / defence 1.33 against Valencia attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 37% | Draw 24% | Valencia 39%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Alaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 33%, Valencia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Alaves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alaves conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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