Getafe 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Getafe face Alaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Coliseum plays host to Getafe versus Alaves in La Liga (matchday 3). Kick-off: Monday 28 August 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Getafe (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Getafe have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Getafe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Alaves's record over their last 2 games: 1W 0D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Getafe, 1.50 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Getafe, 0 for Alaves and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2022, ended Getafe 2–2 Alaves — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.25 xG and Alaves 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.827 / defence 0.783 | Alaves attack 0.727 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.156. Alaves's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Getafe have a tight defence (rating 0.783), which is pulling Alaves's projected output down. Data: built from Getafe's last 40 games and Alaves's last 2.
Result probabilities: Getafe 50% | Draw 32% | Alaves 19%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.01 | Draw 3.17 | Alaves 5.34. Getafe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Alaves's lower xG of 0.66 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Getafe's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 2 games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, matchday 3 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Monday 28 August 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 50% | Draw 32% | Alaves 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Getafe 1.25 / Alaves 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.827 / def 0.783 | Alaves attack 0.727 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Getafe (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Alaves xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Getafe vs Alaves FAQs
What time does Getafe vs Alaves kick off?
Getafe vs Alaves kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Monday 28 August 2023 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Alaves?
Getafe 1 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Getafe vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Alaves part of?
Getafe vs Alaves is a La Liga fixture (matchday 3) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 50% chance of winning, Alaves a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Getafe and Alaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Getafe vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Getafe's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Alaves's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.73x) against Getafe's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from Getafe's last 40 games and Alaves's last 2 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
50%
2.01
32%
3.17
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Getafe xG
Total xG
1.91
0.66
Alaves xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
5%
18.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.2 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Getafe vs Alaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Getafe and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Getafe and 0.66 for Alaves, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Getafe's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L in the last five.
Alaves, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Alaves by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Getafe heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Getafe are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Getafe have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
Getafe (Home) vs Alaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Getafe
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Getafe vs Alaves Form FAQs
What form are Getafe and Alaves in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Alaves have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Getafe or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Alaves in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Getafe and Alaves, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alaves won Alaves 3-0 Getafe on 15 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Getafe
3
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Getafe vs Alaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Alaves?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Getafe have won 4, Alaves have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Alaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Alaves 3-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Alaves?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Getafe vs Alaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Getafe and Alaves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Getafe's recent matches and 50% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Getafe and Alaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Getafe's recent games and 50% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Alaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Getafe's recent matches and 100% of Alaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Alaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Alaves 1-0 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.25 xG and Alaves 0.66 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.83 / defence 0.78 against Alaves attack 0.73 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 50% | Draw 32% | Alaves 19%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 50%, Alaves 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Alaves arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Getafe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Getafe scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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