Valencia 1-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valencia face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Osasuna at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga (matchday 3). Kick-off is Sunday 27 August 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Valencia — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valencia's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valencia at 1.80 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Valencia have won 3, Osasuna 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Valencia 1–0 Osasuna — a Valencia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Osasuna trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 50% versus Osasuna 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valencia 45% | Osasuna 35%). Note also that Osasuna surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Valencia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.10 xG and Osasuna 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.940 / defence 0.876 | Osasuna attack 1.006 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.131. Data: built from Valencia's last 40 games and Osasuna's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Valencia 37% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.73 | Draw 3.11 | Osasuna 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Valencia's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valencia 50% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 30% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Valencia 40 games, Osasuna 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 3 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 37% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Valencia 1.10 / Osasuna 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.940 / def 0.876 | Osasuna attack 1.006 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Valencia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Osasuna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valencia vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Valencia vs Osasuna kick off?
Valencia vs Osasuna kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Valencia 1 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Valencia vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Osasuna part of?
Valencia vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 3) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 37% chance of winning, Osasuna a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Valencia and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Valencia vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.94) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Valencia's last 40 games and Osasuna's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.11
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.10
1.00
Osasuna xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valencia vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Valencia and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Valencia and 1.00 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 9D 18L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.40 PPG from 40 outings (16W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.20 PPG, Osasuna on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Valencia's home form reads 9W 5D 6L across their last 20 home games, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 20 away games (5W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.98 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
Valencia (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valencia
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Valencia vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Valencia and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Osasuna away?
Valencia's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.60 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Valencia or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Osasuna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Sep 2021, when Valencia won Osasuna 1-4 Valencia.
Valencia's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Valencia
2
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Valencia vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Osasuna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valencia have won 5, Osasuna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Valencia 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Osasuna?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 45%, Osasuna 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 45% for Valencia and 25% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Osasuna in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valencia vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valencia and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Valencia's recent matches and 40% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valencia and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Valencia's recent games and 25% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Valencia's recent matches and 70% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Valencia 1-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.10 xG and Osasuna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Osasuna attack 1.01 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 37% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 31%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 45%, Osasuna 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.20 PPG, Osasuna 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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