Mallorca 0-0 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mallorca face Athletic Club.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Athletic Club travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca in La Liga (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mallorca stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Mallorca at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mallorca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Athletic Club — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Athletic Club's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Mallorca) versus 1.10 (Athletic Club). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Mallorca, 1 for Athletic Club and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 May 2023, ended Mallorca 1–1 Athletic Club — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 45% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Athletic Club in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 39% versus Athletic Club 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 32% | Athletic Club 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.11 xG and Athletic Club 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.876 / defence 0.833 | Athletic Club attack 1.030 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.231. Data: built from Mallorca's last 41 games and Athletic Club's last 41.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 37% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 34%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.72 | Draw 3.40 | Athletic Club 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mallorca 40% (last 10 home games) | Athletic Club 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 37% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Mallorca 1.11 / Athletic Club 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.876 / def 0.833 | Athletic Club attack 1.030 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Athletic Club xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Athletic Club FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Athletic Club kick off?
Mallorca vs Athletic Club kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Mallorca 0 - 0 Athletic Club.
Where is Mallorca vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Athletic Club part of?
Mallorca vs Athletic Club is a La Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 37% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Mallorca and Athletic Club will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Mallorca vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.88) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 41 games and Athletic Club's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.40
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.17
1.06
Athletic Club xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Athletic Club Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.06 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 14W 9D 18L from 41 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 16L across 41 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.24 PPG, Athletic Club on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 10W 5D 5L from their last 20 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Athletic Club's away record stands at 7W 6D 7L across their last 20 away games, a 1.35 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.29 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Early Season
Athletic Club
Early Season
Mallorca (Home) vs Athletic Club (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Early Season
Athletic Club
Early Season
❓ Mallorca vs Athletic Club Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 14W 9D 18L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Athletic Club away?
Mallorca's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.75 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Feb 2024, when Athletic Club won Athletic Club 4-0 Mallorca.
Mallorca's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
5
Draws
3
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Athletic Club H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Athletic Club?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 2, Athletic Club have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Athletic Club last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Mallorca 3-2 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 35%, Athletic Club 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Mallorca) and 55% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Athletic Club in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Athletic Club Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Athletic Club matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Mallorca's recent matches and 60% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mallorca and Athletic Club matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Mallorca's recent games and 55% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Athletic Club matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 45% of Mallorca's recent matches and 60% of Athletic Club's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mallorca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca and Athletic Club finished level at 0-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.11 xG and Athletic Club 1.06 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mallorca fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Athletic Club landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.88 / defence 0.83 against Athletic Club attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 37% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 34%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 32%, Athletic Club 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Athletic Club's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.24 PPG, Athletic Club 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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