Suwon City FC 2-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Daegu FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1 (matchday 15). Kick-off is Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Daegu FC stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Daegu FC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of Suwon City FC's games and 60% of Daegu FC's (from Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Daegu FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Suwon City FC have won 0, Daegu FC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Mar 2024, ended Suwon City FC 1–1 Daegu FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 63% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 63% | Daegu FC 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Suwon City FC surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Daegu FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.25 xG and Daegu FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.837 / defence 1.088 | Daegu FC attack 0.955 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.201. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 47 games and Daegu FC's last 47.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.74 | Draw 3.70 | Daegu FC 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though recent form (Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Daegu FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 90% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 15 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Suwon City FC 1.25 / Daegu FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.837 / def 1.088 | Daegu FC attack 0.955 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Daegu FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC FAQs
What time does Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Suwon City FC 2 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 15) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 36% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Suwon City FC and Daegu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (0.84) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Suwon City FC's last 47 games and Daegu FC's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
36%
2.74
27%
3.70
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.49
1.25
Daegu FC xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.25 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 22W 18D 36L from 76 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 30D 23L across 76 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.11 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 13W 9D 16L from their last 38 home games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 8W 15D 15L across their last 38 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC (Home) vs Daegu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC Form FAQs
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 games (1.11 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.26 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 2 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
5
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Suwon City FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2025: Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Suwon City FC at 71%, Daegu FC at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Suwon City FC) and 47% (Daegu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Suwon City FC and Daegu FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Suwon City FC's games and 63% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Suwon City FC's matches and 47% of Daegu FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Daegu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 58% of Daegu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Daegu FC 2-0 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.25 xG and Daegu FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Daegu FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Daegu FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 37%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 63%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.11 PPG, Daegu FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.