Suwon City FC 3-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Incheon United at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Incheon United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Incheon United travel to Suwon Sports Complex to take on Suwon City FC in K League 1 (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 June 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Incheon United — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Incheon United have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Incheon United's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of Suwon City FC's games and 60% of Incheon United's (from Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Incheon United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Suwon City FC have won 2, Incheon United 1, with 5 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Suwon City FC 1–0 Incheon United — a Suwon City FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Suwon City FC trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Incheon United trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 63% versus Incheon United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 63% | Incheon United 38%). Note also that Incheon United surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Suwon City FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.25 xG and Incheon United 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.903 / defence 1.003 | Incheon United attack 1.092 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.170. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 48 games and Incheon United's last 48.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 27% | Incheon United 37%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.78 | Draw 3.73 | Incheon United 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Incheon United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 90% (last 10 home games) | Incheon United 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, matchday 16 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 1 June 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 27% | Incheon United 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Suwon City FC 1.25 / Incheon United 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.903 / def 1.003 | Incheon United attack 1.092 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Incheon United xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Incheon United FAQs
What time does Suwon City FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Suwon City FC 3 - 1 Incheon United.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Incheon United part of?
Suwon City FC vs Incheon United is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 16) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 36% chance of winning, Incheon United a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Suwon City FC and Incheon United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Suwon City FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Incheon United's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Suwon City FC's last 48 games and Incheon United's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.73
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.28
Incheon United xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Suwon City FC vs Incheon United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.28 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC come into this having played 76 games, going 22W 18D 36L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Incheon United sit at 1.45 PPG from 76 outings (27W 29D 20L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.11 PPG, Incheon United on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Suwon City FC's home form reads 13W 9D 16L across their last 38 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Incheon United have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 38 away games (13W 14D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.21 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
Suwon City FC (Home) vs Incheon United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Suwon City FC vs Incheon United Form FAQs
What form are Suwon City FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 games (1.11 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 27W 29D 20L in their last 76 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Incheon United away?
Incheon United's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.26 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Incheon United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2021. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 21 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Suwon City FC have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jul 2024, when Suwon City FC won Incheon United 1-4 Suwon City FC.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Suwon City FC
5
Draws
1
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Suwon City FC vs Incheon United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Incheon United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Suwon City FC have won 4, Incheon United have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Incheon United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 July 2024: Incheon United 1-4 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Incheon United?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 71%, Incheon United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Suwon City FC) and 45% (Incheon United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Incheon United in 32%; Incheon United in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Incheon United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Suwon City FC and Incheon United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Suwon City FC's games and 53% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Suwon City FC and Incheon United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Suwon City FC's matches and 45% of Incheon United's.
Do Suwon City FC and Incheon United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 63% of Incheon United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Incheon United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Incheon United 3-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.25 xG and Incheon United 1.28 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Incheon United attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 27% | Incheon United 37%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 63%, Incheon United 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Incheon United's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.11 PPG, Incheon United 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Incheon United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.