Al-Nassr 3-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (79%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Nassr face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Al-Awwal Park to face Al-Nassr in Pro League (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Nassr have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fateh's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Al-Nassr's favour (1.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Al-Nassr, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Al-Fateh — Al-Fateh have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2024, ended Al-Nassr 2–1 Al-Fateh — a Al-Nassr win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Nassr and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 68% and Al-Fateh 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 74% | Al-Fateh 66%). Note also that Al-Fateh surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Al-Nassr recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 80% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.84 xG and Al-Fateh 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.202 / defence 0.787 | Al-Fateh attack 0.731 / defence 1.626. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.409. Al-Fateh's defence rating of 1.626 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Nassr's projected output up. Al-Fateh's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Al-Nassr have a tight defence (rating 0.787), which is pulling Al-Fateh's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 50 games and Al-Fateh's last 50.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 79% | Draw 13% | Al-Fateh 8%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.26 | Draw 7.68 | Al-Fateh 12.72. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (79%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Al-Awwal Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 79% | Draw 13% | Al-Fateh 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Al-Nassr 2.84 / Al-Fateh 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.202 / def 0.787 | Al-Fateh attack 0.731 / def 1.626 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.84
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Al-Fateh xG
52%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Al-Awwal Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr 3 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Awwal Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 79% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 8% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.20) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.63), the model arrives at 2.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.73x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 50 games and Al-Fateh's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
79%
1.26
13%
7.68
8%
12.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.84
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.65
0.81
Al-Fateh xG
1.26
79%
Home win
7.68
13%
Draw
12.72
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
6%
17.17
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.84 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.81 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 35W 9D 6L from 50 games, a 2.28 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 24L across 50 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 16W 6D 2L from their last 24 home games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 6W 5D 13L across their last 24 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.64 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.42 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 74%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 35W 9D 6L in their last 50 games (2.28 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.25 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won Al-Fateh 0-5 Al-Nassr on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 6W 0D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Al-Nassr 3-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Al-Nassr, 75% for Al-Fateh — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Nassr and 75% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Nassr's games and 75% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Nassr's matches and 75% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 79% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 3-1 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.84 xG and Al-Fateh 0.81 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.20 / defence 0.79 against Al-Fateh attack 0.73 / defence 1.63, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 79% | Draw 13% | Al-Fateh 8%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 74%, Al-Fateh 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.