Al Shabab 2-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Shabab at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Fayha in Pro League (matchday 17). Kick-off: Monday 27 January 2025 at 15:10 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al Shabab have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Al Shabab have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

When travelling, Al-Fayha have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Al Shabab, 1.00 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Al Shabab have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Al-Fayha managing 1 and 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Mar 2024, ended Al Shabab 2–3 Al-Fayha — a Al-Fayha win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al Shabab and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading

Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 50% versus Al-Fayha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 50% | Al-Fayha 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.50 xG and Al-Fayha 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.015 / defence 0.976 | Al-Fayha attack 0.887 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.402. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 50 games and Al-Fayha's last 50.

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 44% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.29 | Draw 3.93 | Al-Fayha 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Al Shabab 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 50% (last 10 away games).

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