Damac 2-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League (matchday 17). Kick-off: Monday 27 January 2025 at 14:05 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Damac have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Damac have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC's record over their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.60 PPG clear of Damac over their recent games (2.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Damac's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) — Damac have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Ittihad FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 May 2024, ended Damac 1–4 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Damac 58% and Al-Ittihad FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 52% | Al-Ittihad FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.15 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.972 / defence 1.152 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.094 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.411. Data: built from Damac's last 50 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 50.
Result probabilities: Damac 25% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Damac 4.06 | Draw 4.29 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.92. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Damac's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Damac 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 January 2025 at 14:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 25% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Damac 1.15 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.972 / def 1.152 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.094 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Al-Ittihad FC xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 14:05 UK time on Monday 27 January 2025 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Damac 2 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Damac and Al-Ittihad FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.09x) against Damac's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 50 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
25%
4.06
23%
4.29
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Damac xG
Total xG
2.93
1.78
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.06
25%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
4%
24.01
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Damac and 1.78 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Damac's recent record stands at 15W 14D 21L from 50 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 30W 7D 13L across 50 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Damac heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Damac have managed 9W 8D 7L from their last 24 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 12W 5D 7L across their last 24 away games, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.04 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 62%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Damac (Home) vs Al-Ittihad FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 15W 14D 21L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 30W 7D 13L in their last 50 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.46 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Damac on 4 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Damac
3
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ittihad FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 54%, Al-Ittihad FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Damac) and 54% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 42%; Damac have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al-Ittihad FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Damac's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Damac and Al-Ittihad FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Damac's recent games and 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Ittihad FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Damac's recent matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Damac defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.15 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.78 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 25% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Damac win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 52%, Al-Ittihad FC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Damac winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.