Al Khaleej Saihat 1-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Al-Nassr travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 January 2025, 14:50 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Khaleej Saihat at 1.90 PPG versus Al-Nassr's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Al-Nassr have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Al Khaleej Saihat's 0 victories.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Nassr have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 53% and Al-Nassr 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 49% | Al-Nassr 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.44 xG and Al-Nassr 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.115 / defence 0.853 | Al-Nassr attack 1.155 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.439. Data: 49 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 49 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 38% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Nassr 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Khaleej Saihat are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Al-Nassr 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jan 2025, 14:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 38% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.44 / Al-Nassr 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.115 / def 0.853 | Al-Nassr attack 1.155 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Al-Nassr xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 14:50 on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 38% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
Record (4 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 3W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
38%
2.64
25%
4.00
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.85
1.42
Al-Nassr xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.42 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 16W 12D 21L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 34W 9D 6L from 49 games, 2.27 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Khaleej Saihat.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 18W 3D 3L from 24 away games — 2.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.63 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 34W 9D 6L in their last 49 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2026, when Al-Nassr won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
7
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
From 9 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al-Nassr 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 79% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 67% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 79% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-3 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.44 xG and Al-Nassr 1.42 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Al-Nassr attack 1.16 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 38% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 37%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al-Nassr win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 49%, Al-Nassr 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.