Al-Adalah 0-2 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Adalah vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Adalah and Damac meet at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Al-Adalah (all games): 1W 1D 5L across their last 7 — 0.57 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings (14%).
At home, Al-Adalah have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Damac have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Damac away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Damac are 0.73 PPG clear of Al-Adalah over their recent games (1.30 vs 0.57). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Al-Adalah half-time and goal-timing data (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 43% versus Damac 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Adalah 57% | Damac 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 1.03 xG and Damac 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.778 / defence 1.233 | Damac attack 0.970 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.100. Al-Adalah's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Al-Adalah's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Damac's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Adalah's last 7 games and Damac's last 37.
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 29% | Draw 28% | Damac 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 3.46 | Draw 3.53 | Damac 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Adalah 33% (last 3 home games) | Damac 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 October 2022 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 29% | Draw 28% | Damac 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Al-Adalah 1.03 / Damac 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.778 / def 1.233 | Damac attack 0.970 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Damac (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Damac xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Adalah vs Damac FAQs
What time does Al-Adalah vs Damac kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Damac kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Damac?
Al-Adalah 0 - 2 Damac.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Damac part of?
Al-Adalah vs Damac is a Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 29% chance of winning, Damac a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Adalah and Damac will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Al-Adalah vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Adalah's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.97x) against Al-Adalah's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Al-Adalah's last 7 games and Damac's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
29%
3.46
28%
3.53
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
2.35
1.31
Damac xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.88
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Adalah vs Damac Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 1.31 for Damac, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Al-Adalah have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 1W 1D 5L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Damac's form line: 3W 3D 1L from 7 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Damac are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Adalah.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Adalah have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 3 home games (1W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — Al-Adalah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Damac have gone 0W 2D 1L from their last 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Damac's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Adalah are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac in 71%.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
Al-Adalah (Home) vs Damac (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Adalah
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Al-Adalah vs Damac Form FAQs
What form are Al-Adalah and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Adalah have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Damac have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Adalah at home or Damac away?
Al-Adalah's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Adalah at home: 1.00 PPG; Damac away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 10 April 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Adalah
1
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Adalah vs Damac H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Damac?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Adalah have won 0, Damac have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Damac last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2023: Damac 2-2 Al-Adalah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Adalah and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Al-Adalah, 100% for Damac — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Adalah and 67% for Damac. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Adalah vs Damac Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Adalah and Damac matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al-Adalah's games and 100% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Adalah and Damac matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Adalah's matches and 67% of Damac's.
Do Al-Adalah and Damac matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 67% of Damac's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Adalah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Adalah 0-2 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 1.03 xG and Damac 1.31 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Adalah fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.78 / defence 1.23 against Damac attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 29% | Draw 28% | Damac 43%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Adalah 57%, Damac 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Adalah's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.57. Form held, and they took the win. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.