Al Taawon 4-1 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Adalah meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 15 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season.
Al-Adalah (all games): 1W 1D 6L across 8 Pro League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Adalah's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Al Taawon's favour (1.90 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Adalah — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 50% versus Al-Adalah 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Taawon 25% | Al-Adalah 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.57 xG and Al-Adalah 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.009 / defence 1.024 | Al-Adalah attack 0.760 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.102. Al-Adalah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Al Taawon games / 8 Al-Adalah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Adalah 21%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Adalah 4.76. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Adalah 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Adalah 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Al Taawon 1.57 / Al-Adalah 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.009 / def 1.024 | Al-Adalah attack 0.760 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Al-Adalah xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 15 December 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah?
Al Taawon 4 - 1 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 54% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Adalah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Adalah in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Al-Adalah (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 1.01x the league average against Al-Adalah's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Adalah's attack (0.76x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.94
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.42
0.86
Al-Adalah xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
4%
23.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.86 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 5W 2D 1L from 8 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Adalah, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 6L across 8 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 1.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Adalah heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Adalah's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Adalah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Adalah away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.75 PPG; Al-Adalah away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Adalah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Adalah in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Taawon
0
Draws
1
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Adalah have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2023, when Al-Adalah 2-1 Al Taawon.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 50%, Al-Adalah 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al Taawon) and 50% (Al-Adalah).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Adalah in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Adalah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 50% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al Taawon's recent games and 50% of Al-Adalah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Adalah tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Adalah in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Adalah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Adalah 4-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.57 xG and Al-Adalah 0.86 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Al-Adalah attack 0.76 / defence 1.28, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Adalah 21%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 25%, Al-Adalah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.