Damac 0-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Thursday 15 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Damac, 1.20 for Al-Ettifaq — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Damac 2W, Al-Ettifaq 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Damac winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 55% versus Al-Ettifaq 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 42% | Al-Ettifaq 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.10 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.068 / defence 0.962 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.097 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.106. Data: 38 Damac games / 38 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 34% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 37%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ettifaq 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Damac 70% | Al-Ettifaq 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 34% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Damac 1.10 / Al-Ettifaq 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.068 / def 0.962 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.097 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al-Ettifaq xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 15 December 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Damac 0 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Damac vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Damac and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (2 meetings): Damac 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Damac and Al-Ettifaq in?
Damac (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Damac's attack rating (1.07) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.10x) against Damac's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.50
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Damac xG
Total xG
2.27
1.17
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Damac and 1.17 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Damac come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 11D 11L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.13 PPG from 38 outings (10W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Damac's home form reads 9W 6D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (5W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.29 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 10W 13D 15L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Damac's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.83 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ettifaq go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Damac
2
Draws
6
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 56%, Al-Ettifaq 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Damac) and 50% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 39%; Al-Ettifaq in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Damac's recent matches and 44% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Damac's recent games and 50% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Damac's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac and Al-Ettifaq finished level at 0-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.10 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.17 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Damac fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.10 / defence 0.83, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 34% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 37%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 42%, Al-Ettifaq 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.