Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Al-Fayha travel to Mrsool Park to take on Al-Nassr. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr at Mrsool Park this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 2.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Nassr, 0 for Al-Fayha and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Fayha trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 54% versus Al-Fayha 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 65% | Al-Fayha 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.74 xG and Al-Fayha 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.217 / defence 0.866 | Al-Fayha attack 0.797 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.093. Data: 37 Al-Nassr games / 37 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 61% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fayha 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Fayha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 61% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Nassr 1.74 / Al-Fayha 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.217 / def 0.866 | Al-Fayha attack 0.797 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Al-Fayha xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr 4 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 61% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
61%
1.65
24%
4.20
16%
6.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.49
0.75
Al-Fayha xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
6.40
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
29%
3.51
3%
36.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.75 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 37 games, going 24W 5D 8L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.00 PPG from 37 outings (8W 13D 16L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 12W 3D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.56 points per game from 18 outings (1W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.68 scored and 0.97 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Fayha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 24W 5D 8L in their last 37 games (2.08 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 8W 13D 16L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.17 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 61%, Al-Fayha 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Nassr) and 28% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Nassr's games and 56% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 28% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 4-0 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.74 xG and Al-Fayha 0.75 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.22 / defence 0.87 against Al-Fayha attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 61% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 16%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 65%, Al-Fayha 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.