Moreirense 0-0 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Moreirense vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas plays host to Moreirense versus Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Moreirense have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Moreirense at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas this season.
Benfica's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Benfica are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 2.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Moreirense have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Benfica in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Moreirense lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Moreirense half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Benfica half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 36% versus Benfica 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 46% | Benfica 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 0.94 xG and Benfica 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.822 / defence 0.965 | Benfica attack 1.267 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.248. Benfica's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Moreirense games / 45 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 23% | Draw 26% | Benfica 51%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Benfica 1.96. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benfica if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Moreirense 60% | Benfica 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 23% | Draw 26% | Benfica 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Moreirense 0.94 / Benfica 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.822 / def 0.965 | Benfica attack 1.267 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Benfica (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Benfica xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Benfica kick off?
Moreirense vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
Moreirense 0 - 0 Benfica.
Where is Moreirense vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Benfica part of?
Moreirense vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 23% chance of winning, Benfica a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Moreirense and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Benfica?
Record (2 meetings): Moreirense 0W | Draws 1 | Benfica 1W.
What form are Moreirense and Benfica in?
Moreirense (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Benfica (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Moreirense's attack at 0.82x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (1.27x) against Moreirense's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
23%
4.28
26%
3.88
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.47
1.53
Benfica xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
5%
19.70
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.9 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.53 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Moreirense come into this having played 11 games, going 6W 2D 3L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.55 PPG from 11 outings (9W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Moreirense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Moreirense's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.82 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 3.00 points per game from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.55 PPG overall record — Benfica travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Moreirense are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.09 scored and 0.82 conceded. Benfica's attacking output running into Moreirense's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Benfica in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Benfica in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Benfica have gone 9W 1D 1L in their last 11 (2.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.40 PPG; Benfica away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Moreirense or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Benfica in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Benfica go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Moreirense have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Moreirense
3
Draws
5
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Benfica?
From 8 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 0, Benfica have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Benfica 4-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 60%, Benfica 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Moreirense) and 60% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Moreirense keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Benfica in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Moreirense's games and 60% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Moreirense vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Moreirense's recent games and 60% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and Benfica tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Benfica in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Moreirense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense and Benfica finished level at 0-0 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 0.94 xG and Benfica 1.53 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Moreirense fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Benfica landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.82 / defence 0.96 against Benfica attack 1.27 / defence 0.77, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 23% | Draw 26% | Benfica 51%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 46%, Benfica 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benfica's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 1.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.